During the rise from sunspot minimum to maximum, the observed value of smoothed monthly mean sunspot number at maximum RM is found to correlate with increasing strength against the current value of smoothed monthly mean sunspot number R(t), where t is the elapsed time in months from minimum. On the basis of the modern era sunspot cycles (i.e., cycles 10-22), the inferred linear correlation is found to be statistically important (i.e., at the 95-percent level of confidence) from about 11 mo past minimum and statistically very important (i.e.. at the 99-percent level of confidence) from about 15 mo past minimum; ignoring cycle 19, the largest cycle of the modern era, the inferred linear correlation is found to be statistically important from cycle onset. On the basis of R(t), estimates of RM can be gauged usually to within about +/- 30 percent during the first 2 yr and to within about +/- 20 percent (or better) after the first 2 yr of a cycle's onset. For cycle 23, because controversy exists regarding the placement of its minimum (i.e., its onset), being either May 1996 or perhaps August 1996 (or shortly thereafter), estimates of its RM are divergent, being lower (more like a mean size cycle) when using the earlier epoch of minimum and higher (above average in size) when using the later-occurring minimum. For smoothed monthly mean sunspot number through October 1997 (t = 17 or 14 mo, respectively), having a provisional value of 32.0. the earlier minimum date projects an RM of 110.3 +/- 33.1, while the later minimum date projects one of 137.2 +/- 41.2. The projection is slowly decreasing in size using the earlier onset date, while it is slowly increasing in size using the later onset date.

This study provides supplemental material to an earlier study concerning the relationship between spotless days and the sunspot cycle. Our previous study, Technical Publication (TP)-2005-213608 determined the timing and size of sunspot minimum and maximum for the new sunspot cycle, relative to the occurrence of the first spotless day during the declining phase of the old sunspot cycle and the last spotless day during the rising portion of the new cycle. Because the number of spotless days (NSD) rapidly increases as the cycle nears sunspot minimum and rapidly decreases thereafter, the size and timing of sunspot minimum and maximum might be more accurately determined using a higher threshold for comparison, rather than using the first and last spotless day occurrences. It is this aspect that is investigated more thoroughly in this TP.

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Each fall and spring, millions of birds travel the Pacific Flyway, the westernmost of the four major North American bird migration routes. The landscapes they cross vary from wetlands to farmland to concrete, inhabited not only by wildlife but also by farmers, suburban families, and major cities. In the twentieth century, farmers used the wetlands to irrigate their crops, transforming the landscape and putting migratory birds at risk. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service responded by establishing a series of refuges that stretched from northern Washington to southern California. What emerged from these efforts was a hybrid environment, where the distinctions between irrigated farms and wildlife refuges blurred. Management of the refuges was fraught with conflicting priorities and practices. Farmers and refuge managers harassed birds with shotguns and flares to keep them off private lands, and government pilots took to the air, dropping hand grenades among flocks of geese and herding the startled birds into nearby refuges. Such actions masked the growing connections between refuges and the land around them. Seeking Refuge examines the development and management of refuges in the wintering range of migratory birds along the Pacific Flyway. Although this is a history of efforts to conserve migratory birds, the story Robert Wilson tells has considerable salience today. Many of the key places migratory birds use - the Klamath Basin, California's Central Valley, the Salton Sea - are sites of recent contentious debates over water use. Migratory birds connect and depend on these landscapes, and farmers face pressure as water is reallocated from irrigation to other purposes. In a time when global warming promises to compound the stresses on water and migratory species, Seeking Refuge demonstrates the need to foster landscapes where both wildlife and people can thrive.